Experts believe that companies with extensive retail networks and reliable control over supply sources will have a competitive advantage.
Mirae Asset Securities Vietnam JSC has released an updated report on Vietnam National Petroleum Group (Petrolimex, stock ticker: PLX).
The report focuses on changes in the petroleum distribution structure and Petrolimex’s ability to leverage its existing network to increase sales volumes.
Supply Structure Changes Amplify Petrolimex’s Competitive Advantage
Mirae Asset expects a new legal framework governing petroleum trading to be issued in October 2026. According to the securities firm, the draft regulations focus on two key changes: granting businesses greater authority to determine selling prices based on actual business conditions and streamlining the categories of traders in the distribution system.
Even before the new regulations are issued, the intermediary distribution segment has already contracted. According to Mirae Asset, approximately 19 distribution trader licenses had been revoked by the end of August, representing an 8% decrease from the beginning of the year. Most of these revocations occurred from May onward, when the market began experiencing supply fluctuations.
In this context, Mirae Asset believes that companies with extensive retail networks and greater control over supply sources will have an advantage. With its directly owned network and a 46% share of domestic petroleum consumption, Petrolimex is considered one of the few companies capable of increasing supply when other traders encounter difficulties.
Mirae Asset also believes that this position gives Petrolimex greater bargaining power when negotiating supply terms, particularly discount rates.
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Rising Sales Volumes Expected to Boost Profitability
Petrolimex’s first-half business results showed substantial growth. In the second quarter of 2026 alone, net revenue reached VND 136.231 trillion, up approximately 79% year-on-year. Net profit after tax reached VND 3.044 trillion, an increase of 113% and the highest quarterly figure in the company’s history.
For the first six months of the year, Petrolimex recorded net revenue of VND 234.916 trillion, up more than 62% compared with the same period in 2025. Net profit after tax reached VND 2.382 trillion, an increase of approximately 46%.
Business Performance
For the third quarter, Mirae Asset estimates that Petrolimex’s average sales volume over the first nine months of the year increased by approximately 16% year-on-year, with diesel sales rising by 25%.
These figures exceed the securities firm’s forecast of approximately 6% growth for the overall market. On this basis, Mirae Asset projects that Petrolimex’s share of domestic petroleum consumption will reach 46% in 2026.
Source: Mirae Asset
Based on its sales volume outlook, Mirae Asset forecasts Petrolimex’s 2026 revenue at nearly VND 547.6 trillion, an increase of approximately 77% from the previous year. Net profit is projected to reach VND 4.14 trillion, up nearly 55%.
In 2027, revenue is expected to decline to VND 506.379 trillion, while net profit is projected to fall to VND 3.945 trillion.
The securities firm maintains its Buy recommendation on PLX shares, with a target price of VND 49,100 per share. This represents an upside of approximately 38% compared with PLX’s current market price of VND 35,600 per share.